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Who Will Win Golden Globes Without Harvey Weinstein Arm Twisting?

An Awards Cheat Sheet (No Pun Intended)

Movie mogul Harvey Weinstein has been caught in a nasty Hollywood sex scandal and hasn’t been twisting arms behind the scenes of this year’s Golden Globes. See how his absence will affect the awards. (Photo: Bang ShowBiz)

The Golden Globes arguably have been the most susceptible to political pressure over the years, but without Harvey Weinstein twisting arms behind the scenes, this year’s awards may be the most influence free in recent memory.

But that doesn’t mean politics won’t be playing a part.

Overshadowing this year’s ceremony will be the #MeToo movement, which led to Weinstein’s downfall.

The formally unassailable movie mogul was accused by dozens of actresses, from A-listers to budding starlets, of sexual harassment, assault or worse.

Weinstein was also known as an impetuous bully or allegedly had no problem cajoling or threatening others to get his way.

He allegedly bragged about his ability to influence awards, which are bank in Hollywood. In fact, one of his come-ons to alleged victims was a promise to get them an Oscar or Golden Globe–in exchange for sexual favors.

The absence of Weinstein, who was fired from his company and bounced from industry groups, will be a wild card in this year’s selection.

Of course, we’re assuming Weinstein hasn’t been twisting arms.

The Golden Globes are presented each year by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which has been trying to clean up its act after years of corruption allegations.

So here’s a cheat sheet on the movie awards, the favorites and dark horses.

Best Picture, Drama
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Our favorite hands down is “The Post,” starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, a perennial HFPA favorite. But given the HFPA’s reputation for selecting quirky films, Guillermo del Toro’s aquatic-fantasy romance “The Shape of Water” is drawing outside money.

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

Always a bizarre category because it combines two seemingly unrelated genres, Best Picture, Musical or Comedy. Given the spotlight on women’s issues and the impact of #MeToo culture, our call is for either “I, Tonya,” or the coming of age film “Lady Bird.” The HFPA, will want to make a statement to show its cultural sensitivity and we predict they’ll do it with this category. We say “Lady Bird.

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

This is a category where the HFPA will want to show its bent for offbeat films and international film-making. They can kill both birds with one stone by handing the award to Guillermo Del Toro for “The Shape of Water.” Christopher Nolan has been widely mentioned, for “Dunkirk,” but the film was oddly flat. Ridley Scott might have been a contender, but the Kevin Spacey scandal has made “All the Money in the World,” a tightly drawn drama, radioactive.

Best Actor, Movie (Drama)
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq.

Gary Oldman’s performance as British prime minister Winston Churchill is considered the odd-on favorite, but are money is on sentimental favorite Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread.” Denzel Washington could upset the apple cart, depending on how much the HFPA is swayed by cultural issues.

Best Actor, Movie (Musical or Comedy)
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

We like Steve Carell as Bobby Riggs in “Battle of the Sexes.” Culturally sensitive (check), sentimental favorite (check), out of the box role (check). But the competition is stiff from James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”) and Ansel Elgort (“Baby Driver”). It was surprising to see Hugh Jackman get nominated for “The Greatest Showman,” give the criticism the film has generated. Chalk up the possibility of undue influence for this one.

Best Actress, Movie (Drama)
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Meryl Streep has been nominated as she has for several years running no matter what the role. In “The Post,” however, her role was restrained, and the low mega-wattage will work against her. Our money is on Michelle Williams for “All the Money in the World.” Frances McDormand has been mentioned for her role in “Three Billboards,” but she doesn’t show much range outside of her well-known quirkiness. Sally Hawkins is also a contender.

Best Actress, Movie (Musical or Comedy)
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Our money is on Saoirse Ronan for “Lady Bird” for all the right reasons. But the HFPA has a penchant for going against the grain. If that’s the case here, then Margot Robbie will take the Globe.

Best Supporting Actor, Movie
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Willem Dafoe is considered the odds-on favorite for “The Florida Project.” Richard Jenkins is the darkhorse for “The Shape of Water,” which is a heavy contender this year.

Best Supporting Actress, Movie
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau,
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Mary J. Blige is the sentimental favorite, but Allison Janney for “I Tonya,” Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird” and Octavia Spencer for “The Shape of Water” are all contenders. Our money is on Janney.

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