Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor, says Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the election based on his statistical model, which has predicted the winner of the popular vote 100% of the time since it was launched in 1996.
Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University in New York, first predicted that Trump is a virtual lock to win the presidency back in March based on his statistical analysis.
Norpoth reaffirmed his prediction Sept. 15 on “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” where he said his analysis continues to show that Trump will definitely defeat Hillary Clinton.
Helmut Norpoth’s statistical model, called the Primary Model, factors in the results of the primary elections as well as historical swings of the electoral pendulum to predict an outcome.
Both statistics favor Trump, wrote Professor Norpoth:
“What favors the GOP in 2016 …. is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House, the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.”
In other words, the same political party rarely remains in power for three consecutive terms, especially when (like today) there’s a stagnant economy, mounting racial tensions, and escalating geopolitical threats.
Norpoth also said the outcomes of primary elections are a key indicator of general election wins:
“Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November.
Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.”
Trump’s stronger primary showing compared to Hillary — despite the fact that he ran against several people: Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich — shows Trump is more likely to win the general election according to Norpoth’s statistical model.
Professor Norpoth said today’s polls aren’t very accurate because they rely on questionnaires done via phone calls to land lines.
Many people don’t have land phones anymore. And those that do often don’t answer their phones when pollsters call, so the polls resulted touted on TV don’t provide an accurate picture of voter preferences.
Norpoth — who has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan — said his statistical model has a 96% rate of accuracy when analyzing all U.S. presidential elections dating back to 1912.
“For elections from 1912 to 2012, the Primary Model picks the winner every time except in 1960 [when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon],” said Norpoth, co-author of The American Voter Revisited.
Still not convinced? Check out Professor Norpoth’s interview with Lou Dobbs from August (see video).